Việc nắm giữ các cổ phiếu đang “lỗi thời” hay có kết quả kinh doanh tụt lùi là điều hết sức cần nên tránh. Nếu doanh nghiệp đó đang có kế hoạch to lớn để (i) xây dựng thêm nhà máy; hay (ii) tìm cách mở rộng quy mô hoạt động thì việc chấp nhận nắm giữ cổ phiếu còn có thể xem xét. Song nếu những công ty cho dù từng “vang bóng một thời”, giá cổ phiếu nhiều năm bứt phá tăng trưởng song đến một khi mọi thứ thay đổi không còn duy trì được nữa thì việc giá cổ phiếu rơi vào chu kỳ điều chỉnh giảm dài hạn là điều hoàn toàn có thể xảy ra.
Hôm nay chúng ta sẽ cùng trao đổi về Vinamilk, một ví dụ điển hình về cổ phiếu tăng trưởng giai đoạn 2010 – 2017 và sau đó rơi vào chu kỳ suy thoái bắt đầu từ 2018 cho đến nay.
- Tên doanh nghiệp: CTCP Sữa Việt Nam Vinamilk (VNM – Hose)
- Giá hiện tại: 76.500 đồng (16/04/2022)
- EPS hiện tại: 4.500 đồng
- P/E giao dịch bình quân 5 năm vừa qua: 19
- P/E thấp nhất trong 5 năm qua: 15.2
- P/E hiện tại dự phóng theo kết quả kinh doanh 2022: 16.3
Dấu hiệu rõ nét nhất để nhìn thấy một công ty đang kinh doanh “dậm chân tại chỗ” đó chính là (1) doanh thu tăng rất nhẹ dưới 10%/năm, một số trường hợp là đi ngang và sụt giảm; (2) lợi nhuận chỉ loanh quanh một mức nhất định trong nhiều năm.
Như vậy hoàn toàn có thể dễ dàng nhận ra được Vinamilk đang rơi vào tình trạng kinh doanh bão hòa và với tình hình kinh doanh hiện tại thì rất khó để cổ phiếu VNM có thể tạo được sức hút hấp dẫn đến nhà đầu tư. Việc lợi nhuận công ty chỉ duy trì quanh mức 10.500 tỷ đồng trong suốt 4 năm (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021) đã làm giá cổ phiếu bị ảnh hưởng rất nhiều bởi không ai muốn bỏ ra một mức giá quá cao cho một công ty không hề có sự tăng trưởng. Nếu trong tương lai doanh nghiệp chưa có triển vọng tăng trưởng mới giúp lợi nhuận được cải thiện lên mốc 12 hay trên 13 ngàn tỷ đồng thì việc giá cổ phiếu cứ mãi đi ngang theo chiều hướng giảm là điều có thể dự báo trước.
Đối với những ai đang nắm giữ cổ phiếu này mà không biết có thể bán ra hay không, hoặc nên bán ra ở thời điểm nào thì Khải Nguyễn có lời khuyên hãy nhìn vào chỉ số P/E. Đơn giản mà rất hiệu quả!
Quý vị có thể thấy EPS các năm từ 2018 đến 2021 giảm nhẹ đều khoảng 5% và điều ai cũng thấy được đó là giá đóng cửa VNM cũng giảm dần tương ứng. Bằng một phép tính toán đơn giản thì chúng ta có thể tính ra được mức P/E bình quân giao dịch của Vinamilk trong vòng 5 năm vừa qua là ở quanh mốc 19. Nghĩa là mỗi khi giá cổ phiếu tăng trên mốc 19 này thì sau đó khả năng cao sẽ giảm trở lại và khi giá giảm sâu quá xa so với P/E 19 thì việc giá hồi phục là có khả năng rất cao. Đơn cử hồi năm 2020 có lúc P/E thấp nhất của VNM đã là 15.2 khi giá rớt về 72.800 đồng và sau đó giá cổ phiếu đã bật tăng lên trở lại gần 30% chỉ sau 5 tháng.
Câu hỏi đặt ra đó là P/E hiện tại của VNM năm 2022 đang là bao nhiêu?
Theo kết quả kinh doanh được công ty đặt ra cho năm 2022 thì khả năng EPS doanh nghiệp rơi vào mức 4.700 đồng. Với mức giá hiện tại là 76.500 đồng thì chúng ta sẽ có P/E hiện tại (ngày 16/04/2022) là 16.3. Mức 16.3 này khá gần với mức thấp nhất trong 5 năm là 15.2 nên chúng ta hoàn toàn có thể kỳ vọng giá cổ phiếu VNM sẽ có nhịp hồi phục trở lại về P/E bình quân là 19, tức là khoảng 85.000-90.000 đồng.
Như vậy nếu Quý vị chưa tìm được cơ hội đầu tư vào cổ phiếu nào khác có mức sinh lợi tốt hơn thì hoàn toàn có thể cân nhắc nắm giữ VNM từ 3-6 tháng tới khả năng giá sẽ có chiều hướng tích cực hơn. Còn nếu Quý vị có sự linh hoạt và quyết đoán nhất định, thì theo Khải Nguyễn là nên tìm 1 đến 3 cổ phiếu đang có nền tảng triển vọng tăng trưởng tốt từ đây đến 2025. Khi lựa tìm và chọn ra được rồi thì Quý vị có thể cân nhắc quyết định bán VNM để chuyển sang nắm giữ các dòng cổ phiếu có lợi thế tăng giá tốt hơn.
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Mến chúc Quý vị nhiều sức khoẻ, may mắn và bình an,
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