Nhiều người thích cổ phiếu VIC – Tập đoàn Vingroup bởi không chỉ bề dầy phát triển mà còn là doanh nghiệp đa ngành nghề đi đầu cả nước với những cái tên thành công như: Vinhomes (VHM), Vincom Retail (VRE), Vinfast, v.v… mang lại lợi nhuận mỗi năm lên đến vài ngàn tỷ đồng. Đây có thể nói là “bộ mặt” của doanh nghiệp quy mô tầm cỡ lớn tại Việt Nam và là hình ảnh quốc gia trên trường quốc tế. Song ở góc độ đầu tư thì những doanh nghiệp mang lại tiếng vang lớn và hình ảnh nổi trội chưa hẵn sẽ là điểm đến an toàn mang lại lợi nhuận bền vững cho Nhà đầu tư. Hãy cùng Khải Nguyễn lướt qua một số thông tin về tài chính để hiểu hơn về doanh nghiệp Tập đoàn Vingroup và để biết vì sao giá cổ phiếu VIC chỉ quanh quẩn trong một biên độ nhỏ (thậm chí còn giảm giá mạnh) trong suốt 5 năm vừa qua, từ 2018 cho đến nay.
Điểm trừ số 1. Doanh thu “ảm đạm” không tăng trưởng – Lợi nhuận sau thuế biến động thất thường thậm chí âm
Từ 2019 Khải Nguyễn đã nhiều lần đề cập về VIC bởi tuy là một doanh nghiệp lớn, đầu ngành song sự tăng trưởng về quy mô doanh thu và lợi nhuận là hết sức kém cõi. Từ 2018 đến 2021 doanh thu thuần cứ quanh giữa 110 ngàn tỷ đến 130 ngàn tỷ đồng. Điều này cho thấy sự không tăng trưởng trong nhiều năm.
Về lợi nhuận sau thuế cũng thiếu ổn định không kém chỉ quanh 4,5 ngàn tỷ cho đến 7,5 ngàn tỷ từ 2018 cho đến nay, năm 2021 lợi nhuận sau thuế còn âm 7,58 ngàn tỷ đồng. Với 3,8 tỷ cổ phiếu đang lưu hành trên thị trường thì mức lợi nhuận này là rấp thấp chỉ ứng với mức EPS xấp xỉ 1.500 đồng/CP, mà giá VIC giao dịch trên sàn thì 80.000đ có khi trên 120.000đ là điều hết sức vô lý! Hơn nữa, cổ tức bằng tiền mặt hàng năm gần như là bằng 0.
Điểm trừ số 2. Lãi vay hàng năm quá cao, nuốt chững lợi nhuận!
Lợi nhuận sau thuế mỗi năm chỉ quanh 5.000 – 7.000 tỷ đồng song nếu quay trở lại phần chi phí lãi vay phải trả hàng năm chúng ta thấy là 11.400 tỷ đồng (ở năm 2020) và 10.288 tỷ đồng (ở năm 2021). Đây có thể nói là phần chí phí rất rất lớn mà doanh nghiệp phải gồng gánh suốt nhiều năm. Công ty làm được bao nhiêu tiền thì mang đi trả lãi là điều có thật ở VIC.
Nhìn con số vay dài hạn từ 61.770 tỷ năm 2018, tăng lên 84.400 tỷ năm 2019, rồi lên 98.309 tỷ năm 2020 và 102.011 tỷ năm 2021, chúng ta rút ra được kết luận đó là nhu cầu vay trung – dài hạn của Vingroup luôn không ngừng phát triển, cứ vài năm là tăng lên vài chục ngàn tỷ đồng tiền vay. Trong khi nhiều doanh nghiệp thường tăng quy mô vay vốn để tập dụng các cơ hội mở rộng doanh thu và lợi nhuận thì VIC hoàn toàn ngược lại, doanh thu thì cứ teo tóp còn lợi nhuận thì năm được năm không! Với mức vốn chủ sở hữu là 159.000 tỷ đồng (năm 2021) thì tỷ lệ Nợ vay dài hạn là 102.000 ngàn tỷ đồng là khá cao (chiếm xấp xỉ 65%). Về lâu về dài nếu VIC không có kế hoạch hợp lý để làm giảm bớt phần nợ vay này hay tốt hơn là cải thiện lợi nhuận cho tương xứng thì việc doanh nghiệp cứ gồng mình trả lãi trong 5 đến 10 năm tiếp theo sẽ bào mòn hết lợi nhuận. Qua đó giá cổ phiếu khó mà có biến chuyển tích cực cho nhà đầu tư.
Điểm trừ số 3. “Lượng tiền ròng” dự trữ quá ít
Khó cho VIC bởi doanh nghiệp còn phải đi mở rộng nguồn thu tu vay dài hạn hàng năm thì lấy đâu ra lượng dự trữ tiền ròng được. So với mức vốn chủ sở hữu lên đến 159.000 tỷ đồng (năm 2021) thì lượng tiền + tương đương tiền + đầu tư nắm giữ đến ngày đáo hạn chỉ khoảng 15% là hết sức khiêm tốn. Nếu lấy con số vừa tính ra này trừ đi vay dài hạn thì kết quả lại được con số âm. Ở góc độ đầu tư những công ty nào có lượng tiền ròng cao luôn sẽ “an toàn” hơn bởi cái giá mà nhà đầu tư thật sự bỏ ra (sau khi trừ lượng tiền dự trữ ròng) là thấp hơn nhiều so với giá đang giao dịch trên sàn chứng khoán. Chúng ta có thể lấy Thế Giới Di Động làm ví dụ khi lượng dự trữ tiền ròng xấp xỉ 25.000 đồng/CP hay Đạm Phú Mỹ con số này là 20.000 đồng/CP.
Trạng thái thiếu tiền ròng của VIC cũng lý giải vì sao sau nhiều năm trời công ty không hề chia 1 đồng lợi nhuận nào (dưới dạng cổ tức tiền mặt) cho nhà đầu tư. Và đây cũng là một điểm trừ bởi cổ tức tiền mặt cũng đóng một vai trò nhất định trong khẩu vị đầu tư.
Tóm lại
Phía trên vừa rồi là một số điểm nhấn ngắn về cổ phiếu VIC – Tập đoàn Vingroup. Dĩ nhiên để đi sâu hơn còn rất nhiều khía cạnh cũng như chỉ số tài chính khác cần được phân tích như: tỷ lệ khoản phải thu/doanh thu; chỉ số ROIC; P/E; định giá; v.v… song Khải Nguyễn tin bao nhiêu cũng đủ để nhà đầu tư cảm nhận được đôi nét về một doanh nghiệp lớn, một cổ phiếu có thương hiệu lớn không phải lúc nào cũng là điểm đến “đầy thú vị” và hứa hẹn nhiều thành công cho Nhà đầu tư.
Theo quan điểm cá nhân thì với Khải Nguyễn, Vingroup (VIC) là một dạng cổ phiếu nên tránh không phù hợp cho Nhà đầu tư cá nhân, đặc biệt nhóm nhà đầu tư đi theo trường phái đầu tư giá trị. Và đây cũng là ví dụ điển hình cho thấy, không phải cứ nằm trong rổ VN30 thì sẽ là cổ phiếu tốt, không hẵn sẽ là cổ phiếu có nền tảng tiềm năng tăng trưởng giá trong dài hạn. Và các quỹ đầu tư theo chỉ số dựa vào các rổ giá như VN30 cũng sẽ chẳng đi đến đâu!
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