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Cổ Phiếu Thế Giới Di Động (MWG cafef) – Những Điểm Cần Lưu Ý Đầu Tư

July 26, 2022
272 comments

Thế Giới Di Động có thể nói như là “ngôi sao sáng” trên làng chứng khoán tại Việt Nam khi được săn đón sở hữu bởi đa dạng các nhóm Nhà đầu tư cá nhân lẫn tổ chức trong và ngoài nước. Nói đến MWG hầu như ai cũng đã từng một lần sở hữu và “có lợi nhuận” trong một giai đoạn đầu tư nào đó. Song từ khi lên sàn hồi năm 2014 cho đến nay thì cổ phiếu Thế Giới Di Động (MWG cafef) đã có một chặng đường tăng trưởng rất miệt mài và câu hỏi Nhà đầu tư đang đặt ra đó chính là:

“Liệu tình hình kinh doanh của Thế Giới Di Động đã bảo hoà tăng trưởng?”

“Liệu việc mua cổ phiếu MWG cho giai đoạn 2022-2024 có còn khả thi như những năm vừa qua?”

Trong nội dung bài viết hôm nay, Khải Nguyễn xin chia sẻ một góc nhìn nhỏ về những điểm sáng, nổi bật cũng như những điểm cần phải lưu ý dành cho Nhà đầu tư nào đang chuẩn bị mua Thế Giới Di Động hoặc dành cho những Nhà đầu tư đang lỡ trót “kẹp hàng” ở vùng giá 80.000 đồng vừa qua (Lưu ý: giá MWG ngày 26/07/2022 là 63.400 đồng/CP – giảm 21%).

NHỮNG ĐIỂM BÁO CÁO TÀI CHÍNH NỔI BẬT

Điểm 1. Doanh thu thuần tăng trưởng ấn tượng với CARG 25% trong 5 năm

Nếu xét những doanh nghiệp “người thật việc thật” trên sàn chứng khoán thì những công ty duy trì được tốc độ tăng quy mô doanh thu bình quân 25% trong nhiều năm là điều hiếm gặp. Hầu hết các cổ phiếu có doanh thu tăng tốt như MWG thì Lợi nhuận sau thuế lại không tốt tương ứng mà có dấu hiệu chậm chạp hơn qua đó làm giá cổ phiếu rất kém hấp dẫn trong dài hạn có thể kể đến như: VIC, MSN, PLX, v.v…

Khoản mục phải thu tiếp tục ghi nhận sự quản lý rất tốt từ bộ máy Ban lãnh đạo khi duy trì chỉ dưới 5% so với doanh thu thuần, và dưới 10% so với tổng tài sản và đây được xem là nỗ lực rất đáng ghi nhận. Nó giúp tỷ lệ nợ xấu công ty ở mức thấp và giúp dòng tiền doanh nghiệp chủ động hơn cho các mục tiêu tài chính ngắn hạn. Như đã nói ở trên, chất lượng doanh thu tốt và tăng trưởng trên 25% thì cũng phải đi kèm với lợi nhuận sau thuế hay EPS tốt tương ứng thì mới giúp cổ phiếu trông hấp dẫn hơn, nên chúng ta sang Điểm số 2.

Điểm 2. Tốc độ tăng trưởng EPS CARG 5 năm đạt 30.3% nhanh hơn Doanh thu

“Người thật việc thật” Thế Giới Di Động sau nhiều năm phát triển đã làm được điều mà ít có công ty nào duy trì được đó chính là Lợi nhuận sau thuế hay EPS tăng trưởng rất song hành cùng tốc độ doanh thu. Nhờ vào EPS đi lên đều 30.3%/năm đã giúp giá cổ phiếu MWG được neo rất bền vững quanh vùng P/E 15 đến 17 lần trong gần 9 năm vừa qua. Nói đến đây Nhà đầu tư sẽ hỏi:

“Liệu Thế Giới Di Động có thể tiếp tục duy trì được P/E cao như giai đoạn 2015-2022?”

Để biết được điều này theo Khải Nguyễn Nhà đầu tư cần nên theo dõi động thái của các Quỹ đầu tư đang sở hữu cổ phiếu MWG; tình hình các Quỹ mới tham gia như thế nào và cũng như là tình hình triển khai (i) Bách Hoá Xanh, (ii) Nhà thuốc An Khang, hay (iii) các dự án nhỏ về thể thao, thời trang sắp tới. Những thông tin này sẽ xuất hiện rất thường xuyên từ những buổi Roadshow của Thế Giới Di Động tổ chức cùng Nhà đầu tư và đối tác; và được cập nhật trong nhiều Báo cáo phân tích các công ty chứng khoán nên Anh Chị chú ý theo dõi tình hình trong tương lai.

Theo quan điểm riêng thì MWG có chất lượng lợi nhuận tốt, có tốc độ tăng trưởng Vốn chủ sở hữu (thông qua giá trị sổ sách cổ phiếu) rất cao là 62% và có tổng lợi nhuận 3 năm lớn hơn nhiều so với tổng nợ vay dài hạn. Nên theo ý kiến cá nhân thì MWG vẫn đang có một cơ cấu tài chính khá vững mạnh để chuẩn bị cho các kế hoạch kinh doanh triển khai trong tương lai. Song ở chiều ngược lại Nhà đầu tư cũng nên theo dõi sát tình hình (i) Lợi nhuận Bách Hoá Xanh và (ii) dự kiến bán vốn Bách Hoá Xanh cho tổ chức lớn sẽ diễn ra như thế nào và với mức giá ra sao.

Điểm 3. Vay nợ hợp lý – ROIC tích cực – Định giá “còn nhiều ẩn số” cho giai đoạn 2023-2027

Giá cổ phiếu hiện đang mức 63.500 đồng song công ty đã tích luỹ được một lượng tiền mặt ròng lên đến 18.000 đồng/CP (chiếm gần 20% giá đang giao dịch) và đây được xem là điểm cộng tích cực giúp cổ phiếu thêm hấp dẫn hơn.

Điểm lưu ý: hiện tại đó chính là ROE và ROIC đang suy yếu hơn so với giai đoạn 2015-2018 khi liên tục giảm nhiều điểm %. Điều này có thể được hiểu bởi khoản vay ngắn hạn hơn 24.000 tỷ đồng đang tài trở cho quy mô hàng tồn kho rất lớn của công ty. Theo Khải Nguyễn ROIC bình quân 5 năm vẫn duy trì 15% song Anh Chị cũng nên lưu ý thêm nếu trong thời gian tới ROIC liên tục giảm dưới 10% kéo dài trong nhiều quý thì cũng cần nên đánh giá lại xem đây là sự kiện nhất thời hay do tình hình kinh doanh đang dần kém triển vọng hơn. Một cổ phiếu có ROIC dưới 10% theo Khải Nguyễn chưa đủ hấp dẫn cho trung hạn 2-3 năm bởi nhiều khả năng giá sẽ chỉ loanh quanh biên độ 15-30% mà rất khó để bứt phá tăng 100% sau 2 năm.

VỀ ĐỊNH GIÁ:

Thế Giới Di Động đã làm khá tốt trong năm Covid 2021 và hậu Covid 2022. Giá cổ phiếu cũng đã có sức bật tăng ấn tượng trên 120% từ cuối 2020 nên việc trong ngắn hạn công ty cần ổn định thêm tài chính và đây cũng là khoảng thời gian giá cổ phiếu cần nghỉ ngơi một chút để Nhà đầu tư đánh giá lại và cảm nhận nhiều hơn.

Cho 5 tháng cuối năm 2022 thì theo Khải Nguyễn MWG sẽ cũng chỉ loanh quanh biên độ tăng giảm 15-20%, mức cản mạnh của Thế Giới Di Động sẽ là 72.000 đồng – 75.000 đồng. Vì thế nên chiến lược phù hợp dành cho Nhà đầu tư đang nắm giữ Thế Giới Di Động tại các vùng giá 3x, 4x thì có thể xem xét chốt lời một phần tại các vùng kháng cự mạnh khi vượt target ngắn hạn là 69.000 đồng/CP. Còn với những Nhà đầu tư đang muốn MUA mới MWG thì vùng giá 45.000 đồng – 55.000 đồng sẽ được khuyến khích và an toàn hơn.

Như vậy qua chia sẻ vừa rồi Anh Chị Nhà đầu tư cũng thấy là những Cổ phiếu tuy rất tốt và có bề dầy tăng trưởng trong nhiều năm song không phải lúc nào cũng là “thời điểm vàng” để đầu tư. Những ai mua cổ phiếu Thế Giới Di Động (MWG cafef) từ tháng 7/2021 cho đến nay tháng 7/2022 thì cũng chỉ nhận được mức lợi nhuận xấp xỉ 0%. Còn Anh Chị nào “ra vào” chưa chuẩn theo FOMO thị trường hoàn toàn có thể vẫn đang tạm lỗ MWG từ 20% trở lên.

Việc nắm giữ Thế Giới Di Động sẽ tốt hơn nhiều nếu Quý vị duy trì một số nguyên tắc sau:

— Vùng giá mua an toàn (MOS trên 40%) là quanh: 45.000 đồng – 58.000 đồng. Anh Chị Nhà đầu tư nên linh hoạt theo điều kiện thị trường thực tế để có thể chọn được vùng giá mua hợp lý.

— Chiến lược mua: phân bổ vốn mỗi lần giải ngân 25-30% khi giá cổ phiếu MWG có cơ hội xuất hiện. Đối với Nhà đầu tư lướt sóng có thể giải ngân 50%-70% song phải quản trị tốt Margin và có nguồn tiền dự trữ đối ứng phòng khi thị trường diễn biến xấu hơn xảy ra.

— Anh Chị Nhà đầu tư đang tìm những cơ hội an toàn, bền vững cho mục tiêu lợi nhuận từ 30%/năm thì Thế Giới Di Động không phải là lựa chọn duy nhất cho giai đoạn 2023 – 2027. Mà thay vào đó một số doanh nghiệp có nền tảng tài chính tốt, triển vọng đang nằm trong chu kỳ tăng trưởng khả quan hơn vẫn có thể cho mức lợi nhuận kỳ vọng trên 100% sau 2 năm. Anh Chị nên cân nhắc thay vì mua 1 cổ phiếu duy nhất MWG thì có thể phân bổ thêm 50-70% vốn vào nhóm này cho mục tiêu tăng trưởng cao hơn.

Khai Nguyen Investment

ĐĂNG KÝ HỢP TÁC ĐẦU TƯ

Quý vị Nhà đầu tư có thể trao đổi thêm cùng Khải Nguyễn về cơ hội hợp tác đầu từ 1 trong 2 Cổ phiếu Giá trị cho mục tiêu tăng trưởng 100% trong 12 tháng tiếp theo.

Anh Chị đăng ký TẠI ĐÂY hoặc điền thông tin bên dưới nhé: https://mailchi.mp/f52a6ee9d2e1/dangkyhoptacdautu

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